---
title: "Retinal changes on OCT may predict atrial fibrillation risk years before diagnosis"
id: "medical-news-today-0-how-changes-in-the-eyes-may-help-spot-afib-risk-years-early"
canonical_url: "https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/medical-news-today-0-how-changes-in-the-eyes-may-help-spot-afib-risk-years-early"
content_type: "clinical_feed_article"
specialty: "Cardiology"
source_name: "Medical News Today"
source_url: "https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-changes-in-the-eyes-may-help-spot-afib-risk-years-early/"
published_at: "2026-09-20T06:00:00.000Z"
evidence_level: "Verified Feed"
license: "CC-BY-NC-4.0 / Informational Use"
---
# Retinal changes on OCT may predict atrial fibrillation risk years before diagnosis
## Provenance & Clinical Metadata
- **Canonical URL:** https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/medical-news-today-0-how-changes-in-the-eyes-may-help-spot-afib-risk-years-early
- **Specialty:** [Cardiology](https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/cardiology.md)
- **Primary Source:** Medical News Today
- **Source URL:** [Original Journal Publication](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-changes-in-the-eyes-may-help-spot-afib-risk-years-early/)
- **Published At:** 2026-09-20T06:00:00.000Z
- **Evidence Rating:** Verified Feed
## Executive GIST (TL;DR)
- Atrial fibrillation (**AFib**) affects an estimated **52.55 million** people worldwide and increases risk for stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and dementia. - AFib is often undetected because symptoms can be absent or nonspecific; prior research suggests about **62%** of people with AFib were unaware before diagnosis. - A new study using data from the **AlzEye** and **U.K. Biobank** cohorts analyzed more than **90,000** retinal images (optical coherence tomography [**OCT**] and color fundus photos). - Investigators found consistent thinning of the macular ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer (**mGCIPL**) in people with AFib. - Thinning of the mGCIPL is interpreted as a sign of retrograde degeneration, possibly reflecting prior microvascular events (mini strokes), and was observed in both hospital-based and volunteer cohorts. - The study also identified thinning of the inner nuclear layer, which the authors hypothesize may reflect vulnerability to microvascular ischemia rather than retrograde degeneration. - Among participants without AFib at the time of imaging, those who later developed AFib had thinner mGCIPL on average about **4 years** before hospital presentation with AFib. - Retinal imaging is noninvasive and widely available in ophthalmology and optometry settings; OCT quantification of layer thickness is feasible in primary care eye services. - Authors propose further work on OCT image analysis, larger oculomic datasets, and regulatory development of algorithms as medical devices for earlier systemic disease detection. - Independent clinicians interviewed noted plausible mechanisms (silent ischemia, cerebral microinfarcts causing retinal atrophy) but emphasized that the precise biological links between AFib and retinal changes remain to be determined and require validation in future studies.
## Clinical Analysis & Structured Key Points
Atrial fibrillation: Eye scan may predict risk 4 years sooner Medical News Today Health Conditions Health Conditions Alzheimer's & Dementia Anxiety Asthma & Allergies Atopic Dermatitis Breast Cancer Cancer Cardiovascular Health COVID-19 Diabetes Endometriosis Environment & Sustainability Exercise & Fitness Eye Health Headache & Migraine Health Equity HIV & AIDS Human Biology Leukemia LGBTQIA+ Men's Health Mental Health Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Nutrition Parkinson's Disease Psoriasis Sexual Health Ulcerative Colitis Women's Health Health Products Health Products All Nutrition & Fitness Vitamins & Supplements CBD Sleep Mental Health At-Home Testing Men’s Health Women’s Health Discover News Latest News Medicare 2026 Costs Original Series Medical Myths Honest Nutrition Through My Eyes New Normal Health Podcasts All ADHD in women: Breaking the stereotypes Is sleep the missing piece in mental health? Artificial sweeteners and brain aging: What we know so far Does the Mediterranean diet hold the key to longevity? AMA: Registered dietitian answers 5 key questions about fiber and weight loss Health misinformation and disinformation: How to avoid it Tools General Health Drugs A-Z Health Hubs Newsletter Medicare Plans by State Health Tools Find a Doctor BMI Calculators and Charts Blood Pressure Chart: Ranges and Guide Breast Cancer: Self-Examination Guide Sleep Calculator Quizzes RA Myths vs Facts Type 2 Diabetes: Managing Blood Sugar Ankylosing Spondylitis Pain: Fact or Fiction Connect About Medical News Today Who We Are Our Editorial Process Content Integrity Conscious Language Find Community Bezzy Breast Cancer Bezzy MS Bezzy Migraine Bezzy Psoriasis Follow Us Subscribe How changes in the eyes may help spot AFib risk years early Written by Corrie Pelc on September 20, 2026 — Fact checked by Jill Seladi-Schulman, Ph.D. Share on Pinterest Eye scans may be able to predict AFib risk 4 years before diagnosis. macroworld/ Getty Images About 52.55 million people around the world are living with atrial fibrillation (AFib). People with AFib are at an increased risk for several health issues, including stroke and heart failure. It’s not uncommon for AFib to go undetected until it becomes a problem due to a lack of noticeable or unique symptoms. A new study says certain changes to the eye’s retina may help detect AFib as early as 4 years before diagnosis. Researchers estimate that about 52.55 million people around the world are living with atrial fibrillation (AFib) — a cardiovascular condition where the beating of the upper and lower champers of the heart are out of sync, causing a “fluttering” or racing heartbeat. People with AFib are at an increased risk for several health issues, including stroke , heart failure , heart attack , and dementia . In many cases, AFib doesn’t have any noticeable symptoms or has symptoms shared with other common issues. For this reason, it’s not uncommon for AFib to go undetected until it becomes a problem. A recent study found that about 62% of people with AFib didn’t realize they had it before being diagnosed. Now, a new study published in the journal PLOS Digital Health presents evidence suggesting certain changes to the eye’s retina , or layer of cells in the back of the eye, may help detect AFib as early as 4 years before diagnosis. Turning to the retina to assess heart health For this study, researchers analyzed optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans of the retina and color retinal photography for more than 90,000 people. The images were found through two large cohort studies — AlzEye and the U.K. Biobank . “The retina is the only place in the body where blood vessels and nerve fiber tissue can be analyzed noninvasively with commonly available eye tests like OCT scans or fundus photographs ,” Josef Huemer , MD, consultant ophthalmologist at Moorfields Eye Hospital and honorary senior research fellow at the Institute of Ophthalmology University College London, and lead author of this study, told Medical News Today . Huemer explained: “In previous work on retinal strokes we found a very strong signal for ocular events in patients with AFib, and further work has shown that diseases like Parkinson’s disease , or even schizophrenia would cause subtle retinal changes — in the case of Parkinson’s disease several years prior to the disease manifestation.” FC JSS 18-Sep-26. Please link to the previous work mentioned above (I am having a hard time finding it on a quick search). People with AFib have thinning of retinal cell layers At the study’s conclusion, researchers found that people with AFib consistently had a thinner macular ganglion cells and inner plexiform layer (mGCIPL) . This layer combines two different layers in the retina, the ganglion cell layer that relays visual information from the retina and the brain, and the inner plexiform layer, which sends to the brain info on certain visual signals like motion and changes between light and dark. “Thinning of the mGCIPL is a sign of retrograde, or past, degeneration, and is therefore not disease specific,” Huemer explained. “It is most likely caused by mini strokes in the brain, a common finding in patients with AFib. However, this finding was identified in both cohorts, one of hospital-based patients and one in a healthy volunteer study, which gives us confidence in the findings,” he detailed. “Furthermore, we found thinning of the inner nuclear layer, which is not caused by retrograde degeneration, and our hypothesis is that this thinning is caused by cardiovascular disease, as this area is very vulnerable to micro strokes of the eye,” he added. Retinal thinning present about 4 years before AFib diagnosis Heumer and his team also found that among study participants who did not originally have AFib when their retinal photos were taken, those who eventually developed AFib had thinner mGCIPL layers on average 4 years before presenting to hospital with the heart condition. “This is indeed very interesting, it highlights several things,” Huemer told us. “Number one, the difficulty of establishing the diagnosis of AFib. Number two, this thinning can fairly easily be quantified by OCT scans that are widely available in primary care ophthalmology — for example at high street optometrists in the U.K.” “The next step is to explore if this finding could also be used to improve risk calculation and to assess if we can identify patients earlier and refer them for long-term electrocardiogram monitoring,” he continued. “We are currently working on more OCT-related image analysis in the context of cardiovascular disease in large scale datasets. We have also expanded our dataset to enable further oculomic research,” said Huemer. “In the coming years we anticipate progressing our research algorithms in oculomics through the regulatory pathway for approval as a medical device, for use in local optometry settings for earlier detection of systemic disease,” he added. How are retina changes linked to AFib risk? When asked how a heart condition like AFib might be assessed through changes in retina eye cells, Huemer said the retina allows for unique, non-invasive assessment of blood vessels and nerve fiber layers. “Furthermore, seeing is highly energy dependent, therefore the retinal vasculature is more susceptible to show cardiovascular damage in similar fashion to diabetic retinopathy . The connection of cardiovascular problems and subtle changes at the level of the retina is well established and was first mentioned in the late 1800s . With today´s imaging and AI supported segmentation algorithms, as well as advanced statistics, we can provide more robust evidence about these associations.” – Josef Huemer, MD MNT also spoke with Benjamin Bert , MD, a board-certified ophthalmologist at MemorialCare Orange Coast Medical Center in Fountain Valley, CA, who was not involved in this study. “Since atrial fibrillation can cause strokes, the hypothesis from the researchers is that there could be ‘silent ischemia’ — small episodes of poor blood perfusion causing damage to the tissues leading to thinning of these particular layers of the retina,” Bert detailed. “They also hypothesize that it could be related to mild damage to the brain that then leads to cellular atrophy in the retina,” he added. Potential to broaden early AFib risk Finally, MNT also had the opportunity to speak with Cheng-Han Chen , MD, a board-certified interventional cardiologist and medical director of the Structural Heart Program at MemorialCare Saddleback Medical Center in Laguna Hills, CA. Chen, who likewise was not involved in this study, commented that a technique that could identify people at increased risk of developing AFib through routine eye imaging could potentially broaden our ability to recognize risk earlier and identify patients who may benefit from closer cardiovascular monitoring. “The underlying mechanism linking AFib with changes in the cells or blood vessels of the eye is not yet well understood,” he explained. “We do not typically think of heart rhythm disorders as being directly associated with changes in eye cells, so this potential connection is particularly interesting and warrants further investigation.” “Future studies will need to determine exactly what biological changes in the eye are associated with AFib and whether these changes can reliably predict who will go on to develop the condition,” Chen continued. “Researchers will also need to determine how well eye imaging performs across different populations and whether it could ultimately become a practical screening tool. At this stage, these findings are promising but should be viewed as an early step toward understanding a potential connection between the heart and the eye,” he concluded. Heart Disease Cardiovascular / Cardiology Eye Health / Blindness Atrial Fibrillation How we reviewed this article: History Share this article Written by Corrie Pelc on September 20, 2026 — Fact checked by Jill Seladi-Schulman, Ph.D.
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