---
title: "Causal analysis finds global rock-record influence on Phanerozoic marine biodiversity"
id: "biorxiv-2-causal-analysis-of-rock-biodiversity-relationships-over-the-global-phanerozoic"
canonical_url: "https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/biorxiv-2-causal-analysis-of-rock-biodiversity-relationships-over-the-global-phanerozoic"
content_type: "clinical_feed_article"
specialty: "General"
source_name: "bioRxiv (Biomedical Preprints)"
source_url: "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1?rss=1"
published_at: "2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z"
evidence_level: "Verified Feed"
license: "CC-BY-NC-4.0 / Informational Use"
---
# Causal analysis finds global rock-record influence on Phanerozoic marine biodiversity
## Provenance & Clinical Metadata
- **Canonical URL:** https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/biorxiv-2-causal-analysis-of-rock-biodiversity-relationships-over-the-global-phanerozoic
- **Specialty:** [General](https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/general.md)
- **Primary Source:** bioRxiv (Biomedical Preprints)
- **Source URL:** [Original Journal Publication](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1?rss=1)
- **Published At:** 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z
- **Evidence Rating:** Verified Feed
## Executive GIST (TL;DR)
- The authors compiled literature-derived measures of global **sampled marine biodiversity** and sedimentary strata, plus an existing sea-level curve, to test causal relationships across the Phanerozoic. - An information-theoretic causal framework was applied to evaluate the relative contributions of **rock record bias** and a common-cause (e.g., sea level) hypothesis to variation in sampled biodiversity. - Data indicated strong contemporaneous causality of marine strata on sampled biodiversity, implying the **rock record bias** seen regionally also operates at the global Phanerozoic scale. - Neither rock-record bias nor common-cause mechanisms explained most of the long-term, Phanerozoic-scale variation in sampled marine biodiversity; large portions of variance remained unaccounted for. - The study team observed tentative evidence for synergistic causality: interactions between geologically mediated sampling biases and processes shaping the biological signal may contribute to global patterns. - The authors noted that fossil databases are inherently biased toward fossiliferous strata, and they assembled independent, literature-derived measures to mitigate this limitation. - The source did not report specific model parameters, numerical effect sizes, sample sizes, or detailed methodological settings in the abstract, so those details are not available here. - Authors declared no competing interests and acknowledged funding from Johannes Kepler University Linz and Linz Institute of Transformative Change (LIFT_C).
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Alexis Rojas 1 Johannes Kepler University Linz; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Alexis%2BRojas%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Rojas%20A&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AAlexis%2BRojas%2B) * [ORCID record for Alexis Rojas](http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1063-9102 "Open in new tab") * For correspondence: alexis.rojas_briceno@jku.at Gregor Mathes 2 University of Passau; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Gregor%2BMathes%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Mathes%20G&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AGregor%2BMathes%2B) * [ORCID record for Gregor Mathes](http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2788-1173 "Open in new tab") Andreas Futschik 3 Department of Applied Statistics, Johannes Kepler University Linz * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Andreas%2BFutschik%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Futschik%20A&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AAndreas%2BFutschik%2B) * [ORCID record for Andreas Futschik](http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7980-0304 "Open in new tab") * [Abstract](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_art/node:5901330/1) * [Info/History](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1.article-info)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_info/node:5901330/1) * [Metrics](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1.article-metrics)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/article_tab_metrics/node:5901330/1) * [Supplementary material](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1.supplementary-material)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_data/node:5901330/1) * [ Preview PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1.full.pdf+html)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_pdf/node:5901330/1) ![Loading](https://www.biorxiv.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/panels_ajax_tab/images/loading.gif) ## Abstract Sampled marine biodiversity covaries strongly with sedimentary rock quantity over the Phanerozoic, but the respective contributions of different potential causes remain unsettled. Although regional studies show that rock-record bias accounts for more variation in sampled marine biodiversity than common-cause mechanisms, evaluating this relationship across the global Phanerozoic record remains difficult because fossil databases are inherently biased toward fossiliferous strata. To address this limitation, we compiled literature-derived measures of global marine biodiversity and sedimentary strata, along with an existing sea-level curve. Using an information-theoretic causal framework, we then evaluated the relative contributions of rock-record bias and common-cause hypotheses to Phanerozoic-scale variation in sampled marine biodiversity. Our results show a strong contemporaneous causality of marine strata on sampled biodiversity, indicating that rock record bias detected at regional scales extends to the global scale. However, neither rock record bias nor common-cause mechanisms accounts for most Phanerozoic-scale patterns in sampled biodiversity, and additional unmeasured factors likely contribute. Finally, we find tentative evidence that synergistic causality between geologically mediated sampling biases and forces shaping the underlying biological signal contributes to global Phanerozoic patterns in sampled biodiversity. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ## Funder Information Declared Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz Institute of Transformative Change (LIFT_C) Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a [CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). bioRxiv and medRxiv thank the following for their generous financial support: > The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, The University of Edinburgh, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. 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[ Download PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1.full.pdf) Print/Save Options [Download PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/10/25/2026.10.22.761025.full.pdf)Full Text & In-line FiguresXML [More Info](https://www.biorxiv.org/about/FAQ#PrintOptions "More Information on Print/Save Options") [Supplementary Material ](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025v1.supplementary-material) [ Email](https://www.biorxiv.org/ "Email this Article") [ Share](https://www.biorxiv.org/) Causal analysis of rock-biodiversity relationships over the global Phanerozoic challenges rock record bias and common cause hypothesis Alexis Rojas, Gregor Mathes, Andreas Futschik bioRxiv 2026.10.22.761025; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.22.761025 This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [[what does this mean?](https://www.biorxiv.org/about/FAQ#unrefereed)]. 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