---
title: "Mapping human encounter risk with dangerous large mammals in a Tanzanian Wildlife Management Area"
id: "biorxiv-2-mapping-potential-for-human-encounters-with-dangerous-large-mammals-across-a"
canonical_url: "https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/biorxiv-2-mapping-potential-for-human-encounters-with-dangerous-large-mammals-across-a"
content_type: "clinical_feed_article"
specialty: "General"
source_name: "bioRxiv (Biomedical Preprints)"
source_url: "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1?rss=1"
published_at: "2026-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
evidence_level: "Verified Feed"
license: "CC-BY-NC-4.0 / Informational Use"
---
# Mapping human encounter risk with dangerous large mammals in a Tanzanian Wildlife Management Area
## Provenance & Clinical Metadata
- **Canonical URL:** https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/biorxiv-2-mapping-potential-for-human-encounters-with-dangerous-large-mammals-across-a
- **Specialty:** [General](https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/general.md)
- **Primary Source:** bioRxiv (Biomedical Preprints)
- **Source URL:** [Original Journal Publication](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1?rss=1)
- **Published At:** 2026-10-07T12:00:00.000Z
- **Evidence Rating:** Verified Feed
## Executive GIST (TL;DR)
- This study performed a secondary analysis of published survey data collected over one year in and around the Ifakara-Lupiro-Mang'ula Wildlife Management Area (ILUMA WMA) and Nyerere National Park (NNP) in southern Tanzania to estimate where hazardous human–large mammal encounters are most likely to occur. - Analysis focused on four potentially dangerous large mammals: **elephant**, **buffalo**, **hippopotamus** and **hyena** using indirect signs of recent activity (tracks, spoor and other signs) as evidence of presence. - Encounter potential (risk) was estimated with overlap indices based on spatial co-occurrence of wildlife signs and evidence of human activities and livelihoods recorded in the surveys. - Spatial risk was concentrated in identifiable foci and varied by species and by human livelihood activity rather than being uniformly distributed across the WMA. - **Elephant** and **buffalo** encounter potential was strongly associated with authorized fishing camps in the ILUMA WMA and with the ecotone between heavily disturbed and largely intact natural land cover. - The highest potential for encountering **hippopotamus** was localized largely around two riverbeds identified in the study area. - **Hyena** encounter potential was more closely linked to established villages and converted land near the western boundary of the ILUMA WMA. - The authors argue that effective **human-wildlife conflict** mitigation in this WMA is unlikely to come from single, stand-alone measures; instead, targeted actions that reduce spatiotemporal overlap or protect people and wildlife are needed. - Mapping potential encounter risk using co-occurrence of indirect activity indicators offers a proactive, statistically powerful alternative to retrospective analyses of sparse records of realized conflict events. - The approach provides a framework for shifting management from reactive responses after incidents to proactive prevention. Funding sources and the posting date were reported; the authors declared no competing interests.
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Jude O'Regan 1 University College Cork; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Jude%2BO%27Regan%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=O%27Regan%20J&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AJude%2BO%2527Regan%2B) Lucia J Tarimo 2 Sokoine University of Agriculture; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Lucia%2BJ%2BTarimo%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Tarimo%20LJ&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ALucia%2BJ%2BTarimo%2B) Deogratius Roman Kavishe 3 Ifakara Health Institute; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Deogratius%2BRoman%2BKavishe%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Kavishe%20DR&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ADeogratius%2BRoman%2BKavishe%2B) * [ORCID record for Deogratius Roman Kavishe](http://orcid.org/0009-0007-6832-1440 "Open in new tab") Fidelma Butler 1 University College Cork; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Fidelma%2BButler%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Butler%20F&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AFidelma%2BButler%2B) * [ORCID record for Fidelma Butler](http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9256-3246 "Open in new tab") Aristides Litaka 2 Sokoine University of Agriculture; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Aristides%2BLitaka%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Litaka%20A&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AAristides%2BLitaka%2B) Elisa Manase 4 Tanzania National Parks; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Elisa%2BManase%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Manase%20E&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AElisa%2BManase%2B) Mohamedi Kamuna 5 Community Wildlife Management Areas Consortium * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Mohamedi%2BKamuna%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Kamuna%20M&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AMohamedi%2BKamuna%2B) Felister Mombo 2 Sokoine University of Agriculture; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Felister%2BMombo%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Mombo%20F&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AFelister%2BMombo%2B) Ramiro D Crego 1 University College Cork; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Ramiro%2BD%2BCrego%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Crego%20RD&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ARamiro%2BD%2BCrego%2B) * [ORCID record for Ramiro D Crego](http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8583-5936 "Open in new tab") Gerry Killeen 1 University College Cork; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Gerry%2BKilleen%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Killeen%20G&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AGerry%2BKilleen%2B) * [ORCID record for Gerry Killeen](http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8583-8739 "Open in new tab") * For correspondence: gerard.killeen@ucc.ie * [Abstract](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_art/node:5846262/1) * [Info/History](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1.article-info)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_info/node:5846262/1) * [Metrics](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1.article-metrics)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/article_tab_metrics/node:5846262/1) * [Supplementary material](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1.supplementary-material)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_data/node:5846262/1) * [Data/Code](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1.external-links)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/article_tab_data_code/node:5846262/1) * [ Preview PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.06.750639v1.full.pdf+html)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_pdf/node:5846262/1) ![Loading](https://www.biorxiv.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/panels_ajax_tab/images/loading.gif) ## Abstract This study examined the spatial distribution of potential human encounters with dangerous large mammals in and adjacent to the Ifakara-Lupiro-Mang'ula Wildlife Management Area (ILUMA WMA) and Nyerere National Park (NNP) in southern Tanzania. Using published survey data collected over one year, this secondary analysis focused on four potentially dangerous large mammals: elephant (Loxodonta africana), buffalo (Syncerus caffer), hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) and hyena (Crocuta crocuta). Potential encounter risk was estimated using overlap indices based on co-occurrence of signs of wildlife and human activities. Potential encounter risk was found to be concentrated around readily identifiable foci within the study area and differed between species and distinguishable human livelihood activities. Potential for encountering the two most apparently important dangerous animals, elephant and buffalo, was closely associated with authorized fishing camps within the ILUMA WMA and the ecotone between substantially disturbed and largely intact natural land cover. The greatest potential for encountering hippopotamus occurred largely around two river beds, while hyena encounter potential was more closely associated with established villages and converted lands close to the western boundary of the ILUMA WMA. These new maps of hazard and risk suggest that effective human-wildlife conflict (HWC) mitigation in this WMA is unlikely to arise from any stand-alone intervention, but from targeted actions that reduce spatiotemporal overlap between people and wildlife by keeping them apart and/or protecting them against each other. Overall, this study demonstrates that mapping potential encounter risk based on spatiotemporal overlap of indirect activity indicators like tracks, spoor and signs provides a proactive and statistically powerful way to identify where hazardous encounters are most likely to occur, offering considerable advantages over retrospective assessments of much sparser observations of actual realised conflict events after they have already occurred. This new spatial risk mapping approach provides a framework for shifting management from reactive responses after conflict occurs towards proactive prevention. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ## Footnotes * ## Funder Information Declared AXA Research Fund, https://ror.org/02zxqxw53 Irish Aid, IA-TAN/2022/144 University College Cork, https://ror.org/03265fv13 Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a [CC-BY 4.0 International license](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). bioRxiv and medRxiv thank the following for their generous financial support: > The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, The University of Edinburgh, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. 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