---
title: "Adaptive search-theoretic framework for wildlife surveillance to detect transboundary animal disea"
id: "biorxiv-0-wildlife-disease-surveillance-under-uncertainty-an-adaptive-search-theoretic"
canonical_url: "https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/biorxiv-0-wildlife-disease-surveillance-under-uncertainty-an-adaptive-search-theoretic"
content_type: "clinical_feed_article"
specialty: "Infectious Disease"
source_name: "bioRxiv (Biomedical Preprints)"
source_url: "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1?rss=1"
published_at: "2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z"
evidence_level: "Verified Feed"
license: "CC-BY-NC-4.0 / Informational Use"
---
# Adaptive search-theoretic framework for wildlife surveillance to detect transboundary animal disea
## Provenance & Clinical Metadata
- **Canonical URL:** https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/biorxiv-0-wildlife-disease-surveillance-under-uncertainty-an-adaptive-search-theoretic
- **Specialty:** [Infectious Disease](https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/infectious-disease.md)
- **Primary Source:** bioRxiv (Biomedical Preprints)
- **Source URL:** [Original Journal Publication](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1?rss=1)
- **Published At:** 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z
- **Evidence Rating:** Verified Feed
## Executive GIST (TL;DR)
- Rapid detection of incursions in wild host populations is critical for managing **transboundary animal disease** events, but surveillance planning must account for high uncertainty. - The authors developed and field-tested an **adaptive**, **search-theoretic** surveillance framework focused on early detection in wild ungulates in New South Wales, Australia. - Key design principles were accommodating uncertainty, regularly updating search priorities based on expected risk and spatial coverage, and modular flexibility to respond to new information or changing conditions. - A coarse statewide risk map served as a weakly informative prior, loosely focused on **foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDv)** incursion risk. - Risk and search values were updated every three months using realised surveillance effort and estimated detection probabilities from the previous 12 months, so recently and intensively searched high-risk areas could have reduced current search value. - Surveillance targeted **wild pigs (Sus scrofa)**: 1,964 animals sampled during 110 sampling occasions over a two-year evaluation and refinement period. - At the time of fieldwork, **FMDv serological tests were not available**, so activities simulated FMDv surveillance operations without FMDv-specific serology. - Effort concentrated on high search-value areas: at least 74% of sampled spatial cells were in the highest risk class. - Estimated **surveillance system sensitivity** across five updating cycles ranged from 0.86 to 0.93 and increased as operational procedures were refined. - The program also detected unexpected events, notably an early detection of **Japanese encephalitis virus** in wild pigs before detections in humans and domestic animals. - The framework combines risk-based surveillance with adaptive priority updating in a modular structure, offering a flexible and generalisable approach for early detection of transboundary and emerging animal disease incursions in wildlife under high uncertainty.
## Clinical Analysis & Structured Key Points
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Andrew J Bengsen 1 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Andrew%2BJ%2BBengsen%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Bengsen%20AJ&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AAndrew%2BJ%2BBengsen%2B) * [ORCID record for Andrew J Bengsen](http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2205-4416 "Open in new tab") * For correspondence: andrew.bengsen@dpird.nsw.gov.au Sebastien Comte 1 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Sebastien%2BComte%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Comte%20S&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ASebastien%2BComte%2B) * [ORCID record for Sebastien Comte](http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7984-8159 "Open in new tab") Lee K Parker 1 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Lee%2BK%2BParker%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Parker%20LK&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ALee%2BK%2BParker%2B) Chris Brausch 1 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Chris%2BBrausch%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Brausch%20C&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AChris%2BBrausch%2B) Fabiola Silva 2 New South Wales Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Fabiola%2BSilva%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Silva%20F&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3AFabiola%2BSilva%2B) * [ORCID record for Fabiola Silva](http://orcid.org/0009-0008-5984-0473 "Open in new tab") David M Forsyth 1 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=David%2BM%2BForsyth%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=Forsyth%20DM&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ADavid%2BM%2BForsyth%2B) * [ORCID record for David M Forsyth](http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5356-9573 "Open in new tab") Steven R McLeod 1 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; * [Find this author on Google Scholar](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/google-scholar?link_type=googlescholar&gs_type=author&author%5B0%5D=Steven%2BR%2BMcLeod%2B "Open in new tab") * [Find this author on PubMed](https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/external-ref?access_num=McLeod%20SR&link_type=AUTHORSEARCH "Open in new tab") * [Search for this author on this site](https://www.biorxiv.org/search/author1%3ASteven%2BR%2BMcLeod%2B) * [ORCID record for Steven R McLeod](http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2932-2727 "Open in new tab") * [Abstract](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_art/node:5750549/1) * [Info/History](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1.article-info)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_info/node:5750549/1) * [Metrics](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1.article-metrics)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/article_tab_metrics/node:5750549/1) * [Supplementary material](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1.supplementary-material)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_data/node:5750549/1) * [ Preview PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1.full.pdf+html)[](https://www.biorxiv.org/panels_ajax_tab/biorxiv_tab_pdf/node:5750549/1) ![Loading](https://www.biorxiv.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/panels_ajax_tab/images/loading.gif) ## Abstract Rapid detection is critical for successful management of transboundary animal disease incursions in wild host populations. However, decisions about how best to allocate wildlife disease surveillance effort must be made under high uncertainty. Risk-based surveillance can improve efficiency but approaches that focus surveillance too narrowly on expected high risk areas could have low power to detect unexpected events. We developed and field-tested an adaptive, search-theoretic surveillance framework for detecting transboundary animal disease incursions in wild ungulates in New South Wales, Australia. Key principles that guided the frameworks development included accommodating uncertainty, regularly updating search priorities based on expected risk and spatial coverage, and a flexible structure that allows the system to respond to changing information or conditions over time. We created a coarse state-wide risk map that served as a weakly informative prior describing expected variability in disease incursion risk, loosely focused on foot and mouth disease virus (FMDv). Risk and search values were updated every three months based on realised surveillance effort and estimated detection probabilities over the preceding 12 months, meaning that areas of persistently high risk could nonetheless have low search value if they had recently been intensively searched. Surveillance activities collected blood and swab samples from 1,964 wild pigs (Sus scrofa) during 110 sampling occasions over a two-year evaluation and refinement period. Activities sought to simulate FMDv surveillance operations, but FMDv serological tests were not available at the time. Effort was consistently concentrated in areas of high search value, with at least 74% of sampled cells in the highest risk class. Estimated surveillance system sensitivity ranged from 0.86 to 0.93 over five successive updating cycles and increased as operational procedures were refined. Although the surveillance program was based on FMDv incursion risk, it also fulfilled its secondary objective of detecting unexpected events, including detecting Japanese encephalitis virus in wild pigs before detections in humans and domestic animals. By combining risk-based surveillance with adaptive updating of search priorities in a modular structure, the framework provided a flexible and generalisable approach for early detection of transboundary and emerging animal disease incursions in wildlife populations under high uncertainty. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ## Funder Information Declared New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Orange, AU, NA Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a [CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). bioRxiv and medRxiv thank the following for their generous financial support: > The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, The University of Edinburgh, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. 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[ Download PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1.full.pdf) Print/Save Options [Download PDF](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/02/2026.08.31.748179.full.pdf)Full Text & In-line FiguresXML [More Info](https://www.biorxiv.org/about/FAQ#PrintOptions "More Information on Print/Save Options") [Supplementary Material ](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179v1.supplementary-material) [ Email](https://www.biorxiv.org/ "Email this Article") [ Share](https://www.biorxiv.org/) Wildlife disease surveillance under uncertainty: an adaptive search-theoretic framework for early detection of transboundary animal diseases Andrew J Bengsen, Sebastien Comte, Lee K Parker, Chris Brausch, Fabiola Silva, David M Forsyth, Steven R McLeod bioRxiv 2026.08.31.748179; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.08.31.748179 This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [[what does this mean?](https://www.biorxiv.org/about/FAQ#unrefereed)]. 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