---
title: "Climate Change, Human Behavior, and the Projected Spread of Yellow Fever Vectors"
id: "bmj-open-16-projecting-the-future-spread-of-yellow-fever-vectors-and-implications-for"
canonical_url: "https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/bmj-open-16-projecting-the-future-spread-of-yellow-fever-vectors-and-implications-for"
content_type: "clinical_feed_article"
specialty: "Infectious Disease"
source_name: "BMJ Open"
source_url: "http://bmjopen.bmj.com/cgi/content/short/16/9/e115595?rss=1"
published_at: "2026-09-21T12:57:17.000Z"
evidence_level: "Journal Feed"
license: "CC-BY-NC-4.0 / Informational Use"
---
# Climate Change, Human Behavior, and the Projected Spread of Yellow Fever Vectors
## Provenance & Clinical Metadata
- **Canonical URL:** https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/bmj-open-16-projecting-the-future-spread-of-yellow-fever-vectors-and-implications-for
- **Specialty:** [Infectious Disease](https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/infectious-disease.md)
- **Primary Source:** BMJ Open
- **Source URL:** [Original Journal Publication](http://bmjopen.bmj.com/cgi/content/short/16/9/e115595?rss=1)
- **Published At:** 2026-09-21T12:57:17.000Z
- **Evidence Rating:** Journal Feed
## Executive GIST (TL;DR)
- This scoping review mapped primary studies that project future trends in **yellow fever** epidemiology or vector dynamics in the context of **climate change**, climate variability and human behaviour. - Systematic searches of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL plus manual congress abstract searches yielded 1,243 records screened; 42 studies met inclusion criteria. The earliest included study was from 2009 and 67% were published between 2019 and 2024. - Most eligible studies (81%) were **modelling** studies examining projected changes in vector range and abundance rather than direct future disease incidence. - Findings commonly indicated climate-driven expansion of major yellow fever vectors, especially **Aedes aegypti**, with **temperature** and **precipitation** the most examined covariates. - Human factors—notably **urbanisation** and population growth—were frequently modelled as amplifiers of exposure risk. - Direct evidence linking vector-range projections to future yellow fever transmission was less common and more heterogeneous across studies. - Noted knowledge gaps include limited research on non-Aedes vectors, sparse projections specific to future yellow fever trends in Africa, and insufficient understanding of how sylvatic (enzootic) cycles will respond to climate and human behaviour changes. - The review used Joanna Briggs Institute scoping methodology and PRISMA-ScR guidance; data extraction was manual and expert review determined final categorizations. Generative AI was used only as a drafting aid. - Overall interpretation: changing climate conditions and human activities such as urbanisation and land-use change are likely to increase vector abundance and geographic range, and many analyses suggest increased human exposure and transmission risk, but direct evidence for future transmission remains limited and heterogeneous.
## Clinical Analysis & Structured Key Points
Background Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease with high epidemic potential. Although currently concentrated in Africa and Latin America, both climate change and human behaviour are likely to affect its future spread and epidemic risk. However, how these factors might interact to alter yellow fever distribution remains unclear. Objectives This scoping review aimed to map the available literature at the intersection of these topics and compile the trends that may influence the future spread of yellow fever. Eligibility criteria Studies were included if they reported original data on future trends in yellow fever epidemiology or vector evolution in the context of climate change, climate variability and human behaviour. Review articles, reports without original data, reports not addressing future trends in yellow fever epidemiology or vector evolution in the context of climatic factors or human behaviour were excluded. Sources of evidence Systematic searches of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL were conducted from database inception up to September 2024, alongside manual searches of congress abstract books conducted in September 2024. Charting methods The project followed Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews, using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. Searches focused on publications containing data relating to predicting, modelling or forecasting trends over time in yellow fever disease, virus and vector dynamics in relation to climatic factors and/or human behaviour. Search results underwent two-step screening against inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were manually extracted using a bespoke Excel form, with results classified according to expert opinion. Trends in the dataset were identified using generative artificial intelligence as a drafting aid and all final categorisation and interpretation was determined through expert manual review. Results In all, 1243 studies were screened and 42 met inclusion criteria. The oldest study was published in 2009, and 67% were published between 2019 and 2024. Most (81%) were modelling studies. Most included studies projected a climate-driven expansion in the range and abundance of major yellow fever vectors, particularly Aedes aegypti , with temperature and precipitation the most frequently examined covariates. Human factors such as urbanisation and population growth were also commonly modelled as amplifiers of exposure risk. Evidence directly linking these projections to future yellow fever transmission was less frequent and more heterogenous. Important knowledge gaps at this topic intersection included limited research on non- Aedes vectors, insufficient information on future yellow fever trends in Africa and limited understanding of how sylvatic cycles might be affected by climate change and human behaviour. Conclusions The available literature suggests that changing climatic conditions and human activities such as urbanisation and land use will likely contribute to future increases in yellow fever vector abundance and geographical range. While most relevant analyses suggest that increases in human exposure and transmission risk are likely to follow, evidence related to these factors was more limited.
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