---
title: "Burden and 15-Year Prediction of Early-Onset Cancer Attributable to Overweight and Obesity in Chin"
id: "pubmed-42660835"
canonical_url: "https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/pubmed-42660835"
content_type: "clinical_feed_article"
specialty: "Oncology"
source_name: "PubMed / NCBI"
source_url: "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/"
doi: "10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.17015"
published_at: "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z"
evidence_level: "Journal Article"
license: "CC-BY-NC-4.0 / Informational Use"
---
# Burden and 15-Year Prediction of Early-Onset Cancer Attributable to Overweight and Obesity in Chin
## Provenance & Clinical Metadata
- **Canonical URL:** https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/pubmed-42660835
- **Specialty:** [Oncology](https://medichelpline.com/clinical-feed/oncology.md)
- **Primary Source:** PubMed / NCBI
- **Source URL:** [Original Journal Publication](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/)
- **DOI:** [10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.17015](https://doi.org/10.3881%2Fj.issn.1000-503X.17015)
- **Published At:** 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z
- **Evidence Rating:** Journal Article
## Executive GIST (TL;DR)
- Objective: assess trends (1990–2021) and predict the next 15 years of the burden of **early-onset cancer** attributable to **overweight and obesity** in China using GBD 2021 data. - Data source: Global Burden of Disease 2021 database; outcomes described using mortality rates, DALY rates, and age-standardized rates. - Methods: analyses by sex and age using R 4.4.1; Joinpoint regression to quantify temporal trends and calculate average annual percentage change (AAPC); ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model to forecast the next 15 years. - Key trend results: from 1990 to 2021 the burden increased overall. Male age-standardized mortality AAPC 2.94% (95% CI 2.90–2.97); female AAPC 1.98% (95% CI 1.93–2.02). Age-standardized DALY AAPC: men 2.88% (95% CI 2.83–2.91); women 1.82% (95% CI 1.77–1.86). All reported P values < 0.001. - Age finding: the 30–34 year age group showed the largest increases between 1990 and 2021—mortality up 88.24% and DALY rates up 91.02% attributable to overweight/obesity. - Forecast: predicted continued rise in age-standardized DALY rates for cancers attributable to overweight/obesity over the next 15 years except for female uterine cancer. - Top cancers contributing to burden: in men—**colorectal cancer**, liver cancer, leukemia, kidney cancer, and gallbladder/biliary tract cancer. In women—through 2028: colorectal, breast, liver, uterine cancer, leukemia; from 2029–2036 ovarian cancer moves to fifth place, surpassing leukemia. - Conclusion and implication: an overall upward trend in early-onset cancer burden attributable to overweight/obesity; authors recommend strengthening comprehensive prevention and targeted interventions for high-risk cancers and specific populations in China. - Data/method notes: study relied on GBD 2021 estimates; Joinpoint and ARIMA models were used. Additional methodological details beyond the abstract were not reported in the source.
## Clinical Analysis & Structured Key Points
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Affiliations Expand ### Affiliation * 1 School of Population Medicine and Public Health，Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College，Beijing 100005，China. * PMID: **42660835** * DOI: [ 10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.17015 ](https://doi.org/10.3881/j.issn.1000-503x.17015) Item in Clipboard # Analysis and Model Prediction of the Burden of Early-Onset Cancer Attributed to Overweight and Obesity in the Chinese Population From 1990 to 2021 Ting Zhang et al. Zhongguo Yi Xue Ke Xue Yuan Xue Bao. 2026. Show details Display options Display options Format Abstract PubMed PMID Zhongguo Yi Xue Ke Xue Yuan Xue Bao Actions * [ Search in PubMed ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Zhongguo+Yi+Xue+Ke+Xue+Yuan+Xue+Bao%22%5Bjour%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc) * [ Search in NLM Catalog ](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog?term=%22Zhongguo+Yi+Xue+Ke+Xue+Yuan+Xue+Bao%22%5BTitle+Abbreviation%5D) * [ Add to Search ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/) . 2026 Aug 30;48(4):660-669. doi: 10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.17015. ### Authors [Ting Zhang](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Zhang+T&cauthor_id=42660835)[ 1 ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/#short-view-affiliation-1 "School of Population Medicine and Public Health，Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College，Beijing 100005，China."), [Fan Li](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Li+F&cauthor_id=42660835)[ 1 ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/#short-view-affiliation-1 "School of Population Medicine and Public Health，Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College，Beijing 100005，China."), [Yu-Ping Wang](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Wang+YP&cauthor_id=42660835)[ 1 ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/#short-view-affiliation-1 "School of Population Medicine and Public Health，Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College，Beijing 100005，China.") ### Affiliation * 1 School of Population Medicine and Public Health，Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College，Beijing 100005，China. * PMID: **42660835** * DOI: [ 10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.17015 ](https://doi.org/10.3881/j.issn.1000-503x.17015) Item in Clipboard Cite Display options Display options Format Abstract PubMed PMID ## Abstract in [ English, ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/#eng-abstract) [ Chinese ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42660835/#zho-abstract) Objective To analyze the trends in the burden of early-onset cancer attributed to overweight and obesity in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predicted its changes over the next 15 years，thus providing a reference for cancer prevention and control in China. Methods The data were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database.The disease burden was described based on mortality rates，disability-adjusted life year （DALY） rates，and their age-standardized rates.R 4.4.1 software was used to analyze the differences and changes in disease burden across different gender and age groups.The Joinpoint regression model was adopted to quantify the temporal trends of the burden of early-onset cancer attributed to overweight and obesity in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021，and the average annual percentage of change （AAPC） was calculated for age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates.An autoregressive integrated moving average model was established to predict changes in disease burden over the next 15 years. Results Between 1990 and 2021，the burden of early-onset cancers attributed to overweight and obesity in China showed an upward trend.The AAPC values of age-standardized mortality rates for men and women were 2.94% （95%_CI_ =2.90-2.97） and 1.98% （95%_CI_ =1.93-2.02），respectively，while those of age-standardized DALY rates were 2.88% （95%_CI_ =2.83-2.91） and 1.82% （95%_CI_ =1.77-1.86），respectively （all _P_ <0.001）.The age group of 30-34 years old in 2021 compared with 1990 saw the most significant increases （88.24% and 91.02%，respectively） in cancer mortality and DALY rates due to overweight and obesity.It was predicted that in the next 15 years，the age-standardized DALY rates for cancers （except female uterine cancer） attributed to overweight and obesity would keep rising.The top five cancers contributing to the disease burden in men would be colorectal cancer，liver cancer，leukemia，kidney cancer，and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer.For women，the top five cancers contributing to the disease burden in 2028 and earlier would be colon and rectum cancer，breast cancer，liver cancer，uterine cancer，and leukemia.From 2029 to 2036，ovarian cancer would surpass leukemia，rising to the fifth position. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021 and in the next 15 years，the burden of early-onset cancer attributed to overweight and obesity in China shows an overall upward trend.The main cancers causing the burden on men are colon and rectum cancer，liver cancer，leukemia，kidney cancer，and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer.The main cancers imposing the burden on women are colon and rectum cancer，breast cancer，liver cancer，uterine cancer，leukemia，and ovarian cancer.It is recommended that comprehensive prevention and control strategies should be improved for overweight and obesity and targeted interventions should be implemented for high-risk cancers and specific populations to reduce the burden of related cancer diseases. 目的 分析1990至2021年中国归因于超重肥胖的早发性癌症疾病负担变化趋势，并预测其未来15年的变化，为我国癌症防控提供参考依据。方法 数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担研究数据库，采用死亡率、伤残调整寿命年（DALY）率及其年龄标准化率描述疾病负担。利用R 4.4.1软件分析不同性别、不同年龄组的疾病负担差异及变化；运用Joinpoint回归模型量化1990至2021年中国人群归因于超重肥胖的早发性癌症疾病负担的时间变化趋势，计算年龄标准化死亡率和年龄标准化DALY率的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）；构建自回归滑动平均混合模型预测未来15年的疾病负担变化。结果 1990至2021年中国归因于超重肥胖的早发性癌症疾病负担呈上升趋势。男性和女性的年龄标准化死亡率的AAPC分别为2.94%（95%_CI_ =2.90~2.97）和1.98%（95%_CI_ =1.93~2.02），年龄标准化DALY率的AAPC分别为2.88%（95%_CI_ =2.83~2.91）和1.82%（95%_CI_ =1.77~1.86）（ _P_ 均<0.001）。相较于1990年，2021年30~34岁因超重肥胖所致癌症死亡率和DALY率增幅最显著，分别上升88.24%和91.02%。预测结果显示：未来15年，除女性子宫癌外，其余癌种归因于超重肥胖的年龄标准化DALY率均将持续增加。男性疾病负担顺位前五的癌种分别为结直肠癌、肝癌、白血病、肾癌、胆囊/胆管癌；女性在2028年及以前顺位前五的癌种分别为结直肠癌、乳腺癌、肝癌、子宫癌、白血病，2029~2036年卵巢癌将超越白血病，跃居第5位。结论 1990至2021年及未来15年，中国归因于超重肥胖的早发性癌症疾病负担总体呈上升趋势。男性主要负担癌种为结直肠癌、肝癌、白血病、肾癌、胆囊/胆管癌；女性主要负担癌种为结直肠癌、乳腺癌、肝癌、子宫癌、白血病、卵巢癌。建议强化超重肥胖综合防控策略，针对高风险癌种及特定人群实施精准干预措施，以降低相关癌症疾病负担。. **Keywords:** cancer; disease burden; global burden of disease; overweight and obesity; prediction. 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