The benefits of investments to combat HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria for primary healthcare from 2000 to 2023: An economic modeling analysis

by Jiaying Stephanie Su, John Stover, Carel Pretorius, Peter Winskill, Sedona Sweeney, Timothy B. Hallett, Nicolas A.

Menzies Background Global investments to combat HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria (HTM) have delivered substantial health gains and may have reduced the burden placed by these diseases on the routine health system. We estimated the reduction in primary healthcare (PHC) utilization resulting from the scale-up of HTM services over 2000–2023 in 108 low- and middle-income countries.

Methods and findings For each disease, we applied established mathematical models to quantify PHC utilization (outpatient visits and inpatient bed-days provided outside of HTM programs) by individuals with symptomatic HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria unable to access HTM-specific services. For each country, we estimated averted PHC utilization by comparing a scenario describing the actual scale-up of HTM services to a counterfactual scenario holding HTM service coverage constant at year 2000 levels.

We applied published unit costs to estimate the averted costs resulting from reduced PHC utilization. Over 2000–2023, scale-up of HTM services averted an estimated 6.9 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) [4.4, 10.5]) billion outpatient PHC visits and 3.9 (95% UI [2.5, 5.9]) billion inpatient bed-days, representing US$135 (95% UI [71, 250]) billion in averted costs.

These reductions were greatest in sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia and Pacific regions. Across study countries, these reductions represented a median of 4.4% of hospital bed capacity and 1.6% of government health spending in 2023.

These percentages were 22.9% and 5.1%, respectively, for low-income countries. Our analysis did not consider changes in PHC services beyond utilization.

Also, several inputs were missing in some countries, with missing values estimated using regression imputation. Conclusions Over recent decades, sustained investments in HTM services in high-burden settings have averted substantial PHC utilization and associated costs.

These benefits should be considered when assessing investment impact.