This study re-estimates cohort life expectancy at birth for US states, Washington DC, and regions, focusing on birth cohorts from 1941 to 2000, using mortality data from the US Mortality Database extended to 2022 and robust forecasting to age 110+. The main outcome is cohort life expectancy at birth by sex and geographical level.
The authors report that all states and regions gained cohort life expectancy over 1941–2000, with typical increases exceeding 5 years and larger gains in some states (e.g., 7–8 years in Oklahoma and Arkansas; over 14 years in Arizona, New Mexico, and South Carolina for men). Rapid convergence occurred in the 1940s due to substantial South declines in under-5 mortality, followed by general stability in regional variation from the 1960s onward, driven by continued South convergence and modest Midwest divergence.
The study notes uncertainty for currently living cohorts due to mortality forecasting, and contrasts its findings with prior work that suggested losses in some female cohorts. Data and code are publicly available (OSF).
The methods include Lee-Carter forecasting and Moran’s I for spatial trends.
BMJ Open published a clinical update in Research Highlights on 08 Apr 2026.
The item focuses on Life expectancy gains across US states between 1941 and 2000: a cohort study.
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