This scientific statement projects a rise in cardiovascular risk factors and disease among women through 2050, based on analyses of NHANES (2015–2020), MEPS (2015–2019), and census population estimates. Among adult women, hypertension is expected to increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050; diabetes from 14.9% to 25.3%; and obesity from 43.9% to 61.2%. Hypercholesterolemia is anticipated to decline from 42.1% to 22.3%. Suboptimal diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are projected to decline, while inadequate sleep increases. Coronary disease prevalence is projected to rise from 6.85% to 8.21%, heart failure from 2.45% to 3.60%, stroke from 4.14% to 6.74%, atrial fibrillation from 1.58% to 2.31%, and total cardiovascular disease and stroke from 10.7% to 14.4%. Similar trends are projected for girls aged 2–19, including an obesity increase from 19.6% to 32.0%. Projections indicate more pronounced adverse trends among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native, multiracial, Black, or Hispanic. The authors note uncertainty around long-term projections and emphasize the need for focused clinical and public health interventions across the life course.
Circulation, Volume 153, Issue 13 , Page e1061-e1077, March 31, 2026. BACKGROUND:Forecasts for the future prevalence of cardiovascular disease and stroke are crucial to guide efforts to improve health outcomes across the life course for women.METHODS:Using historical trends from the 2015 to 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and census estimates for population growth, we estimated trends in prevalence through 2050 for cardiovascular risk factors based on suboptimal levels of Life’s Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke, overall and by age and race and ethnicity.RESULTS:Among adult women overall, the prevalence of hypertension is estimated to increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050. Diabetes (14.9% to 25.3%) and obesity (43.9% to 61.2%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (42.1% to 22.3%). Prevalences of suboptimal diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking will decline over time, and inadequate sleep will increase. Prevalences of coronary disease (6.85% to 8.21%), heart failure (2.45% to 3.60%), stroke (4.14% to 6.74%), atrial fibrillation (1.58% to 2.31%), and total cardiovascular disease and stroke (10.7% to 14.4%) will rise. Similar trends are projected in girls 2 to 19 years of age, with an increase from 19.6% to 32.0% projected in obesity. Most adverse trends are projected to be more pronounced among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic.CONCLUSIONS:The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in women and girls will increase over the next 30 years. Focused clinical and public health interventions are needed across the life course to address these adverse trends.