This longitudinal study evaluated whether developmental declines during preschool associated with the COVID-19 pandemic predicted later academic performance in third grade. Using nationally representative data from Uruguay, investigators compared observed outcomes in 2023 with simulated counterfactual trajectories estimating what academic achievement would likely have been had pandemic-related preschool losses not occurred. The authors framed the research around school readiness and the hypothesis that early developmental disruptions could translate into measurable later differences in mathematics and reading achievement.
Participants comprised 3,760 children enrolled in public preschools who were assessed with the Child Development Inventory (Inventario de Desarrollo Infantil, INDI) at ages 4 and 5 during 2019–2020, and later evaluated with the national third-grade assessment in 2023. The sample was 51.5% female and 48.5% male, with 83.6% identifying as White and the remainder identifying as other racial/ethnic groups. Mean age at the third-grade assessment was 8.53 years (SD = 0.50).
Early childhood assessments focused on developmental domains including cognitive and motor development, using the INDI instrument. Later academic outcomes were taken from Uruguay’s national third-grade assessment, which provided standardized measures of mathematics and reading performance.
The study used observed longitudinal data to simulate counterfactual trajectories representing what children’s developmental and academic outcomes would have looked like had the pandemic not influenced early development. By projecting alternative developmental paths, the analysis aimed to isolate the portion of third-grade achievement that could be linked to preschool losses in cognitive and motor domains. Details of model specification, covariates, and statistical adjustments were reported in the full text but are not reproduced in the abstract.
Results indicated that pandemic-associated losses in preschool cognitive and motor development were associated with lower third-grade performance in mathematics and reading compared with the simulated no-pandemic trajectories. The magnitude of these associations was modest: effect sizes were reported as small, less than 0.10 standard deviations, but they reached statistical significance in the study’s analyses.
The findings underscore that even modest reductions in early developmental domains can be detectable in later standardized academic assessments. The authors interpreted these results as evidence that early learning experiences contribute to foundational skills that support later achievement in core academic domains.
According to the reported results, there was no evidence that pre-existing educational gaps by socioeconomic level widened as a result of the early developmental losses observed during the pandemic period. The abstract does not provide additional subgroup breakdowns or detailed effect estimates by socioeconomic status, race/ethnicity, or sex; those details would be available in the full article.
Although the effect sizes linking preschool developmental losses to later achievement were small, the authors emphasize two key points: first, early developmental and school readiness experiences form important foundations for later academic success; and second, protecting early education during societal crises is important to limit downstream impacts on learning. The study’s national longitudinal design supports the relevance of these conclusions for population-level education policy and early childhood program planning.
The abstract discloses a conflict of interest: Dr. Alejandro Vásquez-Echeverría is involved in a technical agreement to implement the INDI assessment with a national education agency and holds intellectual property rights over the INDI. The abstract notes that effect sizes were small (<0.10 SD) but statistically significant. Specific methodological details, full statistical models, and other limitations are not reported in the abstract and would require consultation of the full text for comprehensive appraisal.
Overall, the study links pandemic-era preschool developmental losses in cognitive and motor development to small, statistically significant reductions in later mathematics and reading performance, without evidence of widening socioeconomic achievement gaps, and highlights the importance of safeguarding early education in future crises.