by Adam Akullian, Victor Ssempijja, Daniel Bridenbecker, Fred Nalugoda, Gertrude Nakigozi, John Santelli, Philip Kreniske, Larry W. Chang, Steven J.
Reynolds, Robert Ssekubugu, Ronald H. Gray, Maria J.
Wawer, Thomas C. Quinn, Ronald M.
Galiwango, William J. M.
Probert, Jeffrey W. Imai-Eaton, Oliver Ratmann, Christophe Fraser, Joseph Kagaayi, Godfrey Kigozi, Mary Kate Grabowski, David Serwadda Background HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in eastern and southern Africa has declined substantially over the past two decades.
These declines are often attributed to biomedical HIV prevention strategies, though concurrent changes in sexual behavior may also contribute. We evaluated the contributions of biomedical and behavioral drivers to historical incidence decline in AGYW and projected their impact on incidence trajectories over the next 30 years.
Methods and findings We conducted a mathematical modeling study using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open, population-based cohort of adults aged 15–49 years in 30 communities in Rakai, Uganda.
PLOS Medicine published a clinical update in Research Highlights on 25 Mar 2026.
The item focuses on Evaluating the biomedical and behavioral drivers of HIV incidence decline in adolescent girls and young women in Uganda: A mathematical modeling study.
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