Imaginary Future Generations and Preference for Carbon Tax Schemes

10 Apr 20264 min read0 viewsJournal Feed

GIST

by Yen-Lien Kuo, Wen-Chin Wu, Daigee Shaw, Bin-Tzong Chie, Yu-Tzung Chang, Yi-Lun Chuang, Yen-Ling Liu, Chun-Ta Fan Carbon pricing instruments have been found to be an effective incentive to mitigate climate change, but that surely increases the burden on the current generation. Some previous experiments found that people will have fewer or delayed gains after imagining the future.

This research employed an experimental survey with a randomized treatment to investigate whether introducing imaginary future generations (IFGs) increases respondents’ probability of choosing carbon tax schemes. The survey was conducted at the end of 2021, collected 1,100 responses, with IFGs randomly introduced to half of the participants.

Five carbon reduction schemes and their environmental, social, and economic consequences were presented to the respondents. These schemes include four hypothetical carbon tax schemes and a feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme that is currently implemented in Taiwan as a comparator.

Those carbon tax schemes can reduce carbon emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2050. This contrasts sharply with a no-tax scenario, which is projected to see emissions increase by 41%.

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Study design and scope

An experimental survey employed a randomized treatment to assess whether introducing imaginary future generations (IFGs) affects choices among carbon reduction schemes.
Data collection occurred in late 2021, yielding 1,100 responses, with IFGs randomly presented to half of participants.
Respondents were exposed to five carbon reduction schemes, including four hypothetical carbon tax designs and a feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme currently in use in Taiwan as a comparator.
All carbon tax concepts described aimed to cut emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2050; a no-tax scenario was contrasted as a higher-emission baseline.

Scheme characteristics and comparative framing

The bundled carbon tax design paired with reduced VAT rates and lump-sum rebates, presented as a revenue recycling mechanism, emerged as the most favored option.
This particular design attracted 35% of respondents as the top choice.
Perceived social impact was highlighted as a contributing factor to its appeal, particularly in relation to income effects for lower earners.

IFGs influence on decision propensity

Introduction of IFGs significantly affected choices, increasing the likelihood by 11 percentage points that a respondent would select a carbon tax scheme over a non-carbon tax alternative.
The IFG exposure appeared to influence a broad cross-section of respondents, encompassing various ages, income levels, and non-environmentalist groups.

Population and interpretive context

The effect of IFGs extended beyond a narrow environmentalist subset, suggesting that imagining future generations can evoke social pressure regarding climate concerns among a diverse audience.
The study emphasizes the potential role of future-oriented framing in shaping preferences for revenue-recycling carbon tax designs over other policy instruments.

Limitations and reporting boundaries

The provided content does not include detailed statistical methods, effect sizes beyond the 11 percentage-point shift, or specific demographic subgroup analyses beyond general statements.
No long-term behavioral or real-world adoption outcomes are reported, and the study does not present material on potential unintended consequences of IFG framing.