Forecasting Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Burden in Women Through 2050

25 Feb 20265 min read0 viewsJournal Feed

GIST (Key Takeaways)

This scientific statement projects a rise in cardiovascular risk factors and disease among women through 2050, based on analyses of NHANES (2015–2020), MEPS (2015–2019), and census population estimates. Among adult women, hypertension is expected to increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050; diabetes from 14.9% to 25.3%; and obesity from 43.9% to 61.2%.
Hypercholesterolemia is anticipated to decline from 42.1% to 22.3%. Suboptimal diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are projected to decline, while inadequate sleep increases.
Coronary disease prevalence is projected to rise from 6.85% to 8.21%, heart failure from 2.45% to 3.60%, stroke from 4.14% to 6.74%, atrial fibrillation from 1.58% to 2.31%, and total cardiovascular disease and stroke from 10.7% to 14.4%. Similar trends are projected for girls aged 2–19, including an obesity increase from 19.6% to 32.0%.
Projections indicate more pronounced adverse trends among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native, multiracial, Black, or Hispanic. The authors note uncertainty around long-term projections and emphasize the need for focused clinical and public health interventions across the life course.

The statement provides projections of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke burden in women through 2050, aiming to inform clinical and public health planning across the life course.

Projections derive from historical trends observed in multiple national datasets, including NHANES (2015–2020), the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS; 2015–2019), and census population estimates.
The analysis estimates prevalence trends for cardiovascular risk factors defined by suboptimal levels of Life’s Essential 8, as well as for clinical CVD and stroke, with stratification by age and race/ethnicity.

Hypertension: increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% by 2050.
Diabetes: rise from 14.9% to 25.3%.
Obesity: up from 43.9% to 61.2%.
Hypercholesterolemia: expected decline from 42.1% to 22.3%.
Suboptimal lifestyle factors: diet quality, insufficient physical activity, and smoking are projected to decline; sleep insufficiency is projected to increase.
Clinically defined CVD and stroke: coronary disease from 6.85% to 8.21%; heart failure from 2.45% to 3.60%; stroke from 4.14% to 6.74%; atrial fibrillation from 1.58% to 2.31%; total CVD and stroke burden from 10.7% to 14.4%.

Adverse trends are anticipated to be more pronounced among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native, multiracial, Black, or Hispanic.
The analysis acknowledges reliance on historical data and modeling assumptions, with inherent uncertainty in long-term projections.

The authors emphasize a need for sustained, life-course–oriented clinical and public health interventions to address evolving risk factor profiles and disease burden in women.

The summary notes uncertainty and limitations related to projection methods and population heterogeneity, without introducing new data beyond the cited sources.