Multicentre prospective cohort study to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting 6-month all-cause mortality in elderly patients with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China: study protocol

Introduction Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has an unpredictable clinical course, causing difficulties in short-term mortality prediction, overtreatment and delayed palliative care. Existing prediction models are limited and lack applicability to Chinese elderly patients with advanced COPD.

Given the heavy disease burden and limited palliative care in China, we designed this multicentre cohort study to develop a 6-month mortality prediction model for elderly patients with advanced COPD to aid risk stratification, timely palliative care and efficient healthcare resource allocation. Methods and analysis Patient recruitment has been ongoing since May 2024 and will be completed by December 2026, with a 12-month follow-up to be completed by December 2027.

Eligible patients are being enrolled, and multidimensional baseline data including demographic characteristics, clinical indicators, laboratory results, comprehensive geriatric assessment and COPD-specific prognostic factors are being systematically collected. All participants will receive 12 months of standardised follow-up (monthly for the first 6 months and quarterly thereafter) to monitor 6-month all-cause mortality (primary outcome), as well as survival duration, end-of-life healthcare utilisation and do-not-resuscitate status (secondary outcomes).