This study evaluated the regional burden of malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) across five East Asian countries — China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Japan, Mongolia, and South Korea — over the period 1990 to 2023. The primary objective was to quantify trends in standardized prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, and mortality rate, and to provide evidence to guide prevention and treatment strategies for MNBAC in the region.
Trends from 1990 to 2023 were summarized using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for standardized prevalence, DALYs rate, and mortality rate. The authors performed decomposition analysis to identify drivers of changes in disease burden within each country and conducted subgroup analyses by age and sex. For projections specific to China, the study applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series model to predict future standardized rates of MNBAC.
In 2023 there were marked differences in MNBAC burden among the five East Asian countries. The study reports that China, DPRK, and Mongolia bore relatively heavier burdens compared with Japan and South Korea.
From 1990 to 2023, China exhibited upward trends in all three standardized indicators: prevalence, DALYs rate and mortality rate. The reported AAPC values for China were 2.86% for standardized prevalence, 1.74% for DALYs rate, and 1.96% for mortality rate.
The DPRK also showed increases across the three indicators, with AAPC values of 1.15% (standardized prevalence), 0.84% (DALYs rate) and 1.26% (mortality rate).
In contrast, Japan and Mongolia showed declines in the standardized prevalence, DALYs rate and mortality rate across the study period. Reported AAPC values for Japan were -0.36% (prevalence), -1.40% (DALYs rate) and -1.37% (mortality). Mongolia’s AAPCs were -0.58% (prevalence), -0.77% (DALYs rate) and -0.82% (mortality).
South Korea’s standardized prevalence remained relatively stable over time (AAPC = 0.12%), with no large shifts reported in the abstract for DALYs or mortality.
Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological changes were the principal contributors to the increases in prevalence and DALYs observed in China and the DPRK. By contrast, epidemiological factors were identified as negative contributors to the trends in Mongolia, helping to explain Mongolia’s declining prevalence, DALYs and mortality burden. The abstract does not report detailed decomposition component values or the relative contribution of demographic versus epidemiologic factors by country; those details would be in the full text.
Sex subgroup analysis demonstrated that the overall burden of MNBAC was consistently higher in males than in females across East Asia.
Age subgroup analysis revealed differing patterns by metric. Standardized prevalence and DALYs rate followed an M-shaped pattern with increasing age, indicating peaks at multiple age ranges rather than a monotonic rise. By contrast, the mortality rate increased progressively with age, showing a clear age-associated upward trend in mortality.
The abstract does not provide the specific ages at which prevalence and DALYs peaks occurred or numeric rates per age band; those granular data are available in the full article.
Using an ARIMA forecasting approach, the authors projected that the corresponding standardized burden measures of MNBAC in China will show a downward trend over the next decade (2024–2033). The abstract does not present the projected numeric rates, confidence intervals, or model performance metrics; these specifics would be contained in the full report.
The study concludes that the disease burden of MNBAC varies significantly across East Asian countries and between demographic subgroups defined by sex and age. Given these differences, the authors recommend developing more targeted prevention and treatment measures tailored to the observed distribution characteristics of disease burden in each country and subgroup, with the goal of reducing MNBAC burden effectively.
All authors declared no conflicts of interest.
Notes on limitations and available detail
This summary is based on the English abstract reported on PubMed. The abstract provides country-level AAPC estimates and broad findings from decomposition, subgroup and forecasting analyses, but does not include the full set of numeric rates by year, age-group specific values, confidence intervals, or model diagnostics. For detailed tables, country-year estimates, and full methodological parameters, consult the full-text article.